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针对城市轨道交通火灾事故的频发性和危害性,依据火灾事故相关统计资料,分析导致事故发生的关键要素,构建城市轨道交通火灾事故因果图模型。在此基础上,采用三角模糊因果图分析方法,解决精确获取基本事件概率值的问题,量化基本事件的概率和模糊条件概率。最后,根据火灾事故统计资料及仿真数据,在证据条件发生情况下,确定火灾事故中发生概率最大的事件及导致该事件发生的主要原因。实例结果表明,中间事件中的火源事件发生概率最大,在其相应的基本事件中,乘客乱扔烟头和电线短路需要重点监控,模型的计算结果与实际情况基本相符。
In view of the frequent and hazardous fire accidents in urban rail transit, the key elements leading to the accident are analyzed according to the statistical data of fire accidents, and a causal model of urban rail transit fire accident is constructed. On this basis, we use the triangular fuzzy causality analysis method to solve the problem of accurately obtaining the probability of basic events, and to quantify the probability of basic events and the fuzzy conditional probability. Finally, according to the statistical data and simulation data of fire accident, under the condition of evidence, determine the event with the highest probability of occurrence in fire accident and the main reason leading to the event. The results of the examples show that the probability of fire source events in the middle event is the highest, and in the corresponding basic events, it is necessary for the passengers to focus on monitoring the short circuit of the cigarette butts and wires. The calculation results of the model basically accord with the actual situation.