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应用多指标多原因模型(MIMIC)测算1979—2009年中国地下经济规模,结果表明改革开放后中国地下经济规模占GDP比例增长幅度较大,1990达到了23.28%,1992年以后则处于相对较为稳定的状态,约为20%左右,但相对规模仍然偏大。税收负担、失业率和政府管制是影响中国地下经济活动的主要因素;地下经济规模比例与官方经济增长率互为因果关系,地下经济对官方经济具有一定的积极作用;但是,地下经济规模的扩大也降低了资源配置效率,并加剧了现阶段中国居民收入的不平等。
Using the MIMIC model to measure the underground economy in China from 1979 to 2009, the results show that the proportion of China’s underground economy in the GDP growth rate increased greatly after the reform and opening up, reaching 23.28% in 1990 and relatively stable after 1992 State, about 20%, but the relative size is still too large. The tax burden, the unemployment rate and the government regulation are the main factors affecting the underground economic activities in China. The ratio of the underground economy to the official economic growth rate is causality and the underground economy has a certain positive effect on the official economy. However, the expansion of the underground economy Also reduced the efficiency of resource allocation and exacerbated the inequality in incomes of Chinese residents at this stage.