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2014年,中国政府一直在保增长与调结构的两难选择中徘徊。一方面,宏观经济下行与通缩压力加剧需要进一步放松宏观政策;另一方面,新一届政府对之前宏观政策过度放松造成的结构性问题心有余悸。因此,中国政府既想通过适当放松来保增长,又想避免过度放松造成结构性问题恶化。这就使得“定向宽松”成为2014年中国宏观政策的关键词。然而,定向宽松政策的效果似乎并不明显。为缓解经济增速进一步下滑,加大结构调整的力度,未来财政政策与货币政策可能将更加发力。
In 2014, the Chinese government has been hovering over the dilemma of maintaining growth and adjusting its structure. On the one hand, the deepening macroeconomic downturn and intensification of deflationary pressures will require further easing of macroeconomic policies; on the other hand, the new government feels lingering over the structural problems caused by the over-relaxation of macroeconomic policies. Therefore, the Chinese government wants both to maintain growth through appropriate relaxation and to avoid over-relaxation and structural deterioration. This makes “directional easing” the key word for China’s macroeconomic policy in 2014. However, the effect of targeted easing does not seem obvious. In order to ease further economic slowdown and increase structural adjustment, future fiscal and monetary policies are likely to exert more force.