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差异产品市场横向兼并单边效应分析技术在最近的十几年有了迅速发展。产业经济学家和反垄断执行机构日益发现,以市场界定和集中计算为基础的结构推定方法,在用于差异产品市场单边效应评价时存在着严重的不足和困难。相关市场界定是评价兼并反竞争效应的手段而不是目的。因而经济学家除了研究如何更好地界定市场外,还发展了无须界定相关市场、直接估计横向兼并单边反竞争效应的新方法。自然实验(简化式估计)和兼并模拟已经运用于兼并审查实践之中。Farrell & Shapiro最近提出的UPP检验虽然明显有偏离现行的美国兼并指南之嫌,但是可望在新指南中体现出来。考察横向兼并单边效应分析技术的演进脉络及其最新发展,对丰富和改进中国反垄断执行机构的兼并审查工具以及制定更好的横向兼并指南具有重要的参考价值。
The differential product market horizontal merger unilateral effect analysis technology in the recent decade has been rapid development. Industrial economists and antitrust enforcement agencies have increasingly found that structural estimation methods based on market definition and centralized calculation have serious shortcomings and difficulties in evaluating the unilateral effects of differentiated products. The definition of the relevant market is a measure of the anti-competitive effect of mergers rather than an end. Therefore, besides studying how to better define the market, economists have also developed new methods that directly estimate the unilateral anti-competitive effects of horizontal mergers without defining the relevant markets. Natural experiments (simplified estimates) and merger simulations have been applied to merger review practices. The recent UPP test, proposed by Farrell & Shapiro, although clearly deviating from the current US guidelines for mergers, is expected to be reflected in the new guidelines. Examining the evolution of lateral merger unilateral effects analysis technology and its recent developments have important reference value for enriching and improving the merger review tools of Chinese antitrust enforcement agencies and for developing better horizontal merger guidelines.