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随着货币市场利率不断攀升,CPI不断走高,投资者更加注重资金的收益性、流动性和资产的灵活配置,居民的投资选择行为逐步复杂化,并对宏观调控产生深远影响。深入分析居民资产投资选择特点,及时了解居民储蓄、消费需求及其影响因素,科学预测投资组合变化趋势,对于理顺货币政策传导机制、促进居民消费投资都有重要的现实意义。本文运用SPSS13.0多元线性回归对山西省居民选择基金、股票等浮动收益类金融资产与上证收盘A股综合指数之间的关系进行了实证检验,使用ARIMA模型对近一阶段居民家庭金融资产结构变化进行了分析预测,据此提出了政策建议。
With the rising interest rates in the money market and CPI rising, investors pay more attention to the profitability, liquidity and flexible allocation of assets. As a result, residents’ investment choices are gradually complicated and have a profound impact on macro-control. In-depth analysis of the characteristics of residential property investment choices, keep abreast of household savings, consumer demand and its influencing factors, and predict the trend of portfolio changes scientifically have important practical significance for rationalizing the monetary policy transmission mechanism and promoting consumer spending. This paper uses SPSS 13.0 multiple linear regression to test the relationship between the floating income financial assets such as residents’ selection funds and stock and the composite A-share index of Shanghai Stock Exchange closing stock. By using ARIMA model, Changes were analyzed and predicted, accordingly proposed policy recommendations.