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为探究我国渤海沿岸地区经济发展与海洋环境污染的相关性,以渤海沿岸13个城市为调查区域,以1990至2014年的经济指标和入海排污量统计数据为基础,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型分析了经济增长与工业废水入海量、城镇污水入海量以及废水入海总量的关系。研究结果表明:统计年度中渤海沿岸地区人均GDP与工业废水入海量之间的关系尚不明确,但与城镇污水入海量和废水入海总量均为正U型关系,说明该地区经济增长对海洋环境污染具有直接推动作用。为判断未来的发展趋势,本文对2015—2020年的增长状况进行了预测,在与历史数据集成后进行分析,发现人均GDP与工业废水入海量转变为倒N型曲线关系,与城镇污水入海量和废水入海总量之间转变为倒U型关系,其转折点发生在2017年前后,说明近年来渤海沿岸地区经济增长与入海排污量的关系已开始发生逆转,如得以继续坚持,可望步入良性互动阶段。
In order to explore the correlation between the economic development and the marine environment pollution in the Bohai Sea coast area, taking 13 cities along the coast of Bohai Sea as the survey area, based on the economic indicators from 1990 to 2014 and the statistics of sewage discharge into the sea, The model analyzes the relationship between economic growth and the amount of industrial wastewater entering the sea, the volume of urban sewage entering the sea and the total amount of wastewater entering the sea. The results show that the relationship between the per capita GDP of the Bohai Sea coast and the volume of industrial wastewater into the sea is not yet clear in the statistical year, but it is positively U-shaped with the volume of urban sewage entering the sea and the total amount of wastewater entering the sea, indicating that the economic growth in the region Environmental pollution has a direct role in promoting. In order to judge the development trend in the future, this paper predicts the growth of 2015-2020. After integrating with the historical data, it analyzes that the per capita GDP and industrial wastewater into the sea change into an inverted N-shaped curve, And the total amount of waste water entering into an inverted U-shaped relationship. The turning point occurred around 2017, indicating that the relationship between economic growth and the amount of pollutants entering the sea has begun to reverse in recent years. If it continues to be adhered to and is expected to enter Positive interaction stage.