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中国南北地震带是一个强震密集,人所注目的地区。本文以南北带北端地震活动性资料为基础,检验模糊数学中的信息检索方法预报地震的效果。对于一个待报时间段,方法选用相应的三个资料时间段范围,选取若干个地震活动性指标,如:相邻两个资料时间段中发生地震(M≥5)次数比 N_2/N_1,发生地震次数随时间的变化量 N,平均震级(?)及其随时间的变化量(?)。地震强度分类情况为:(1)类:M≤5.7;(2)类:5.8≤M≤6.7;(3)类:6.8≤M≤7.7;(4)类:7.8≤M。用模糊集理论进行待报时间段与该时间段中将发生地震类别的匹配过程,从而确定某时间段中可能发生的最大地震强度。本文选用的基础资料从十六世纪开始,范围限于南北带的北段。在对十七世纪以后的资料进行检验后,初步结果表明,检验结果较好。并对今后十年左右发生强震的可能性作了初步估计。
China’s north-south seismic zone is a strong earthquake-intensive, people are concerned about the area. Based on the seismic activity data at the northern and southern end of North China, this paper tests the effect of the information retrieval method in fuzzy mathematics to predict the earthquake. For a time period to be reported, the method selects a corresponding range of three data time ranges and selects a number of seismicity indicators, for example, the number of earthquakes (M≥5) occurring in two adjacent data time periods is greater than that of N_2 / N_1 The change of earthquake frequency with time N, the average magnitude (?) And its change over time (?). Seismic intensity classification is as follows: (1) Class: M≤5.7; (2) Class: 5.8≤M≤6.7; (3) Class: 6.8≤M≤7.7; (4) Class: 7.8≤M. Fuzzy set theory to be reported on the time period and the time period will occur in the matching class of the earthquake to determine the maximum possible period of time seismic intensity. The basic information selected in this article starts from the 16th century and is limited to the northern segment of the north-south belt. After examining the data after the seventeenth century, preliminary results show that the test results are better. And make preliminary estimates of the possibility of strong earthquakes in the next ten years or so.