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利用川西高原31个气象观测站1961~2012年的观测资料,采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检测法和Morlet小波分析方法,详细分析了川西北高原畜牧业界限温度0℃初日、5℃终日及0℃初日至5℃终日之间畜牧气候资源的变化特征。结果表明:(1)川西北高原稳定通过0℃初日及5℃终日在区域上有很大差异,主要受海拔高度、纬度的影响。(2)畜牧气候资源的年际变化总体呈增加趋势,但区域变化不均;(3)各要素年代际变化不同,积温在各个年代都比前一年代增加,而日照时数则呈现出一增两减一增的趋势,降水量的年代际变化型式与日照相反,呈现一减两增一减的趋势;(4)各因素突变特征明显,突变的时间主要出现在20世纪80年代,不同因素的突变类型不同;(5)畜牧业气候资源存在明显的周期性变化,各要素变化周期长短不一致,尤其是降水量以4a左右的短周期振荡为主。
Based on the observation data of 31 meteorological observatories in western Sichuan Plateau from 1961 to 2012, the linear trend method, Mann-Kendall mutation detection method and Morlet wavelet analysis method were used to analyze the relationship between the limiting temperature of livestock husbandry in Northwest Sichuan Plateau at 0 ℃ first day and 5 ℃ day And the change characteristics of animal husbandry climatic resources at 0 ℃ from the first day to the final day of 5 ℃. The results showed that: (1) The stability of the plateau in northwestern Sichuan had a great difference in the area at the initial day of 0 ℃ and the final day of 5 ℃, which was mainly affected by the altitude and latitude. (2) The interannual variation of pastoral climatic resources generally shows an increasing trend, but the regional variation is uneven. (3) The interdecadal variation of each factor is different, the accumulated temperature increases in all ages compared with the previous years, while the sunshine hours shows a (2) the trend of increasing two minus one increasing, the decadal variation pattern of precipitation is opposite to that of sunshine, presenting a trend of decreasing, increasing, decreasing; (4) The mutation characteristics of each factor are obvious, the mutation time mainly appeared in the 1980s, different (5) There is a significant cyclical change in the climate resources of livestock husbandry, and the length of variation cycle of each factor is not consistent, especially the precipitation of about 4 years is mainly the short-period oscillation.