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为合理制订大型港口道路交通规划与管理措施,采用概率分布拟合方法分析实地调查数据,求出不同类型码头作业所诱发交通流的时间分布特征,利用统计量法和图示法对其进行拟合优度检验,并根据上述概率分布建立基于码头作业形态的港区道路交通专用需求预测模型.该模型应用于天津港北疆综合港区的结果表明,该模型具有较好的可行性及有效性.
In order to rationally formulate the planning and management measures for large-scale port traffic, the probability distribution fitting method is used to analyze the field survey data to find out the time distribution characteristics of traffic flow induced by different types of wharf operations. The statistical methods and graphical methods are used to simulate the traffic distribution. Goodness-of-fit test, and based on the above-mentioned probability distribution, a model for forecasting the demand of port road traffic based on wharf operation is established.The result of application of this model to the comprehensive port in Tianjin Port shows that this model is feasible and effective Sex.