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利用树木年轮分析方法研究了西天目山的三种主要针叶树：柳杉、金钱松和黄山松在林分范围内的直径生长与气候因子的关系。用逐步回归分析建立生长指数与１３个气候因子的回归方程，然后将生长曲线加入回归方程获得估计胸高处直径生长量的模型。结果表明，显著影响柳杉直径生长指数的因素为前期生长和夏季气温；影响金钱松生长指数达显著水平的有前期生长和夏、秋两季降水量；显著影响黄山松生长指数的因素有前期生长、夏季气温和秋季降水量。如果未来气温比目前分别升高１℃、２℃和３℃，柳杉的直径生长量将增加３．２％、６．３％和１１．１％；金钱松的将增加３．７％、５．６％和７．４％；黄山松的将增加３．５％、７．１％和１１．８％。文中对影响直径生长的其他因素也进行了讨论。
The relationship between climatic factors and the diameter growth of Cryptomeria fortunei, Pinus thunbergii and Pinus taiwanensis in the stands was studied using the tree-ring analysis method. The regression equation between growth index and thirteen climatic factors was established by stepwise regression analysis. Then the growth curve was added to the regression equation to obtain the model to estimate the diameter growth at the thoracic height. The results showed that the factors that significantly influenced the diameter growth index of Cryptomeria fortunei were pre-growth and summer temperature, pre-growth and precipitation in summer and autumn which affected the growth index of Pinus thunbergii significantly, Growth, summer temperatures and autumn precipitation. If the future temperature is higher than the current 1 ℃, 2 ℃ and 3 ℃ respectively, the diameter growth of Cryptomeria will increase by 3.2%, 6.3% and 11.1%, while that of Pinus thunbergii will increase by 3.7% 5.6% and 7.4%; Huangshan pine will increase by 3.5%, 7.1% and 11.8%. The paper also discusses other factors that affect the diameter growth.