论文部分内容阅读
由于自然因素和人为因素的相互交织,在对变化环境下水文序列变异的影响因素进行归因分析时,不同方法所得出的结论不同,甚至差异很大,其可信度和可参考性往往不能尽如人意.为了能够准确锁定引起区域水文变异的重点区域,提出了空间尺度的主因分析方法.该方法以具有空间嵌套关系的水文序列变异诊断结果为基础,通过空间变异关系图和相关系数,综合判断引起水文序列发生变异的重点区域.结合乌力吉木仁河三级区及其所辖四级区1956-2000年(共45年)的水文序列进行实例验证和物理成因分析,结果显示四级区赤峰是引起三级区水文序列出现变异的主因所在,这个结果对当地水资源保护、规划和管理等相关部门在开展工作、锁定重点治理区域时,具有一定的指导作用.
Due to the intertwining of natural factors and human factors, different methods lead to different or even different conclusions when attribution of hydrological sequence variation factors under changing conditions, and their credibility and reference may not always be the same In order to be able to accurately lock the key areas that cause regional hydrological variation, the main cause of spatial scale analysis method is proposed.This method is based on the diagnostic results of hydrological sequence variation with spatial nested relations, through the relationship between spatial variability and correlation coefficient , Comprehensively determine the key areas that cause the variation of hydrological sequences.According to the hydrological sequence from 1956 to 2000 (total 45 years) Chifeng District 4 is the main cause of the variation of hydrological sequence in the third-level district. This result has a guiding role in the work of local water resources conservation, planning and management and other relevant departments in carrying out their work and locking the key areas for governance.