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目的分析上海市松江区2005-2008年手足口病疫情,并应用趋势季节模型预测2009年手足口病的发病趋势。方法应用SAS 9.1统计软件和Excel 2003对松江区2005-2008年手足口病疫情进行统计分析。结果2005-2008年松江区共报告手足口病2 250例,平均发病率为57.81/10万;年龄以5岁及以下年龄组为主,占85.02%;49.07%的手足口病病例为散居儿童,幼托儿童占45.51%;夏季和冬季是松江区手足口病的高发季节。趋势季节模型预测结果显示2009年松江区手足口病疫情的两个高峰分别位于第26周(6月)和第50周(12月)。结论密切监测手足口病疫情,结合趋势季节模型的预测结果及时采取预防控制措施,防制手足口病的暴发流行。
Objective To analyze the epidemic situation of hand-foot-mouth disease in Songjiang District of Shanghai from 2005 to 2008 and predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2009 by using seasonal model. Methods SAS 9.1 statistical software and Excel 2003 were used to analyze the epidemic situation of HFMD in Songjiang District from 2005 to 2008. Results A total of 2 250 HFMD cases were reported in Songjiang District from 2005 to 2008, with an average incidence rate of 57.81 / 100 000. The age group was mainly aged 5 and below, accounting for 85.02%. 49.07% of HFMD cases were diaspora , 45.51% of preschool children; summer and winter is the high incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Songjiang District. The forecast of the trend season model shows that the two peaks of HFMD in Songjiang District in 2009 are located at the 26th week (June) and the 50th week (December) respectively. Conclusion The epidemic situation of hand-foot-mouth disease is closely monitored, and the preventive and control measures are taken in time in combination with the prediction of the trend season model to prevent outbreak of HFMD.