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东亚汇率合作有各种方案建议,但是东亚汇率合作现实的选择是开展多种形式的次区域汇率合作。本文将东亚地区分为中国-日本-韩国次区域、中国大陆-香港-台湾次区域、中国-东盟次区域,利用向量自回归模型和多变量GARCH模型,分别研究人民币与次区域内其它货币之间的风险传递关系,判断开展次区域汇率合作的市场基础。结果表明,现阶段人民币应选择中国大陆-香港-台湾次区域开展汇率合作;在中国-东盟次区域内,人民币应选择泰铢作为汇率合作伙伴;目前还不具备开展中国-日本-韩国次区域汇率合作的市场基础。
There are various proposals for the exchange rate cooperation in East Asia, but the realistic choice of exchange rate cooperation in East Asia is to carry out various forms of sub-regional exchange rate cooperation. This paper divides East Asia into China-Japan-South Korea sub-region, China-Hong Kong-Taiwan sub-region, China-ASEAN subregion, using vector autoregressive model and multivariate GARCH model to separately study RMB and other currencies in the subregion Between the risk transfer relations, to determine the market for the development of exchange rate sub-regional cooperation. The results show that at this stage the renminbi should be chosen for exchange rate cooperation in mainland China-Hong Kong-Taiwan sub-region. In the China-ASEAN sub-region, the RMB should choose the Thai baht as the exchange rate partner. At present, the exchange rate between the China-Japan-South Korea sub-region The basis of cooperation in the market.