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海洋生物的栖息分布与环境要素的关联性一直是海洋生态学研究的热点之一.近年来,物种分布模型被广泛应用于预测海洋物种分布、潜在适宜性生境评价等研究,为保护海洋生物多样性、防治外来物种入侵及制定渔业管理措施等提供了一条有效途径.物种分布模型主要包括生境适宜性指数模型、机理模型和统计模型.本文对物种分布模型的理论基础进行了归纳和总结,回顾了物种分布模型在预测海洋物种潜在地理分布研究中的开发与应用,重点介绍了不同类型统计模型在海洋物种潜在分布预测中的研究实例.比较各种选取变量和模型验证方法,认为赤池信息准则对于选取模型变量具有优势,Kappa系数和受试者操作特征曲线下面积在验证模型精度中应用最广泛.阐述了物种分布模型存在的问题及未来发展趋势,随着海洋生物生理机制研究的进一步深入,机理模型将是今后物种分布模型发展的重点.
In recent years, the species distribution model has been widely used to predict the distribution of marine species, the evaluation of potential suitable habitats and other research, in order to protect the diversity of marine life The prevention and control of alien species invasion and the development of fisheries management measures provide an effective way.The species distribution model mainly includes habitat suitability index model, mechanism model and statistical model.This paper summarized and summarized the theoretical basis of the species distribution model, reviewed The development and application of species distribution model in the research of potential geographical distribution of marine species are highlighted, and some examples of different types of statistical models in the potential distribution of marine species are emphatically introduced.Comparing various selected variables and model verification methods, it is considered that Chi Chi Information Criterion For the advantage of choosing model variables, Kappa coefficient and the area under the operating characteristic curve of the subject have the most extensive application in validating the accuracy of the model, and expatiate on the existing problems and future trends of the species distribution model. With the further study of the physiological mechanism of marine organisms The mechanism model will be After the focus on species distribution model development.