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据IDC预测,由于技术因素和其它方面的原因,今年贸易电子化的速度将会减慢,Internet和WWW热潮也将逐渐降温。 随着Internet潜力的不断挖掘,曾飞速发展的Internet应用供应商再难有昔日的辉煌。总的联机用户数目的增长率可能仍然不小,但也会有用户对从Web获取信息感到失望而转回到电视。估计一年后,20％的《Fortune》前500家中已有商用Web站的公司将关闭或停止使用这些Web站。但IDC也认为,商业电子化是必然趋势,在未来十年内将会取得长足的进展。预计到2000年,联机用户的数目将增至2亿,2010年则会增至10亿。另外,联机贸易总额在2000年可望达到
According to IDC’s forecast, due to technical factors and other reasons, the speed of electronic trade this year will slow down, and the Internet and WWW boom will gradually cool down. With the continuous exploitation of the potential of the Internet, it has been difficult for Internet application providers that have been rapidly developing to have a glorious past. The growth rate of the total number of online users may still not be small, but there will also be users who are disappointed with the information obtained from the Web and turn back to TV. It is estimated that one year later, 20% of Fortune’s top 500 companies with existing commercial Web sites will close or stop using these Web sites. However, IDC also believes that commercial electronicity is an inevitable trend and that significant progress will be made in the next decade. It is estimated that by the year 2000, the number of online users will increase to 200 million, and in 2010 it will increase to 1 billion. In addition, total online trade is expected to reach in 2000