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原木在我国木材产业发展过程中具有基础性作用。随着我国木材加工业的快速发展,原木消耗大幅上升,木材供需矛盾日益突出,原木进口量持续多年保持增长。文中介绍了我国原木进口的基本情况:进口总量、进口材种结构和进口来源;通过逐步回归方法,以1995—2010年原木进口数据为样本,分析影响我国原木进口的主要因素。研究表明,我国原木进口受到国内生产总值、国内木材产量、木家具和胶合板出口量的显著影响。为此,文中认为创新木材加工技术、提高森林经营管理水平、拓宽木材进口渠道是保证我国木材供给的关键所在。
Log in the development of China’s timber industry has a fundamental role. With the rapid development of the wood processing industry in our country, the consumption of logs has risen sharply. The contradiction between the supply and demand of timber has become increasingly prominent. The import of logs has maintained its growth for many years. This paper introduces the basic situation of China’s timber imports: the total amount of imports, the structure of timber imports and the sources of imports; by stepwise regression method, taking the 1995-2010 imports of logs as a sample, analyzes the main factors affecting China’s imports of logs. Research shows that China’s imports of logs are significantly affected by the GDP, domestic timber output, wood furniture and plywood exports. Therefore, the article thinks that it is the key to ensure the wood supply in our country to innovate the wood processing technology, improve the forest management level and broaden the timber import channel.