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以西江流域控制性水文站最枯月径流、枯水期平均径流序列作为频率分析的特征指标,采用PPCC检验法,对10个水文站点6种理论概率分布进行了对比计算,并分析了不同线型、不同频率区间内枯水设计值的误差变化趋势及外延可靠性。结果表明,采用三参数对数正态分布描述西江流域枯水径流概率分布最优,对数皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布次之,最优分布型式在流域空间分布上无明显差异,在西江流域枯水径流实际水文频率计算时应分析所用频率曲线的可靠性,慎用外延值。
Taking the worst runoff and the average runoff series in the dry season of the control hydrological station of the Xijiang River as the characteristic indexes of frequency analysis, six theoretical probability distributions of 10 hydrological stations were calculated by PPCC test, Variation trend and reliability of dry design value in different frequency range. The results showed that the distribution of logarithm Pearson Ⅲ was the second largest in the Xijiang River Basin using the three-parameter log-normal distribution. The distribution of the optimal distribution pattern was not significantly different in the spatial distribution of the river basin. Runoff hydrological frequency calculation should be used to analyze the reliability of the frequency curve used, be careful with the value of the extension.