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该文给出了供弹箭弹道优化设计的随机弹道模型。模型包括弹箭飞行动力学方程、各干扰因素及其相关函数。外弹道方程以状态变量形式表示。采用协方差分析描述函数法，对阵风、推力偏心、动不平衡和起始扰动所引起的散布，可作为弹道系统的动态响应加以分析研究。其中风场随机过程采用ＰＲＥＳＳ模型；推力偏心作用过程被视为弱平稳随机过程，对其实验曲线的统计分析表明，其自协方差函数为指数衰减型。基于干扰函数与状态变量间的协方差关系，文中给出了该协方差的微分方程。将它与弹道状态变量方差矩阵方程联立，便可得到角偏差的解。以火箭弹道优化设计为例，论述了优化的一般原则，确定设计变量、目标函数和约束条件的方法。实例计算表明，该模型是实用可行的。
This paper presents a stochastic ballistic model for ballistic missile optimization design. The model includes the projectile flight dynamics equation, the perturbation factors and their correlation functions. The external ballistic equation is expressed as a state variable. Using covariance analysis to describe the function method, the scatter caused by gusts, thrust eccentricity, dynamic imbalance and initial disturbance can be analyzed and studied as the dynamic response of the ballistic system. The PRESS model is used in the random process of wind field. The process of thrust eccentricity is considered as a weak stationary random process. Statistical analysis of the experimental curves shows that the autocovariance function is exponential decay type. Based on the covariance relationship between the disturbance function and the state variables, the differential equation of the covariance is given. By combining it with the equation of variance of the ballistic state variables, we can get the solution to the angular deviation. Taking rocket trajectory optimization design as an example, the general principles of optimization, the methods of determining design variables, objective functions and constraints are discussed. The example calculation shows that the model is practical and feasible.