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借助于Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans增长模型,本文分析了当经济沿着最优动态路径增长时,宏观经济效率与人均资本的各种动态关系。实证结果显示:在短期,美国经济正运行在马鞍形稳定臂上,并会继续收敛于短期的均衡状态;中国经济效率与人均资本的值都比较低,而且从相图中的动力线来看,若短期内中国经济不能恢复到稳定臂上来,这一经济效率还有进一步恶化的趋势。在长期,美国的宏观经济效率表现出稳定上升的态势,而中国的宏观经济效率却表现出下滑的趋势,两者呈现典型的“剪刀型”特征。
By means of the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model, this paper analyzes various dynamic relationships between macroeconomic efficiency and per capita capital as the economy grows along the optimal dynamic path. The empirical results show that in the short run, the U.S. economy is running on a saddle-shaped stable arm and will continue to converge to a short-term equilibrium. China’s economic efficiency and per capita capital are relatively low, and from the power line in the phase diagram If the Chinese economy can not be restored to a stable arm in the short term, this economic efficiency will further deteriorate. In the long run, the macroeconomic efficiency of the United States has shown a steady upward trend. However, China’s macroeconomic efficiency has shown a downward trend. Both show typical “scissors-type” characteristics.