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一、平稳的过渡和历史性的转折 1.自1979年改革起步以来,整个国民经济形势始终是由经济形势和改革形势共同决定的。我们首先就从分析经济形势入手。受1984年末总需求膨胀所刺激的国民经济超高速增长,在中央采取适度收缩总需求的“软着陆”政策,并相应改善供给结构以后,到1985年第四季度就明显回落,1986年初到达谷底。再经过一段时期的回升,现已再次进入稳步正常发展的轨道。尽管1985年中局部出现了紧缩力度过猛,1986年初在紧缩效应集中表现出来的经济谷底时又产生了盲目追求产值增长速度的压力和冲动,但是国民经济形势的发展从整体上看是健康的,宏观经济政策基本上取得了预期的效果。首先,投资、消费需求的增长速度大大放慢。预计1986年全年完成的固定资产投资和
I. Steady transition and historic turning point 1. Since the reform started in 1979, the entire national economy has always been determined by the economic situation and the reform situation. We begin by analyzing the economic situation. The rapid growth of the national economy, stimulated by the expansion of total demand in late 1984, dropped significantly after the central government adopted a “soft landing” policy of moderately shrinking aggregate demand and correspondingly improved the supply structure. By the fourth quarter of 1985, the national economy had reached a bottom . After a period of recovery, it has now again entered the track of steady and normal development. Despite some excessive tightening in 1985, the pressure and impulse to blindly pursue the rate of output growth led blindly to the economic trough manifested by the austerity effect in early 1986. However, the development of the national economy as a whole is healthy The macroeconomic policies basically achieved the expected results. First, the growth rate of investment and consumer demand has greatly slowed. It is estimated that the investment in fixed assets completed in 1986 will be completed