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本文比较了5种产量早期预测方法对1～4龄橡胶无性系苗产量预测的准确度。 (1) “小叶柄胶法”:高产品系的选对率达93.6％,低产品系的误选率为3.4％。一龄苗小叶柄胶值与其成龄芽接树头五割年的平均产量之间呈极显著相关(n=100,r=0.8071)。 (2) “叶脉胶法”:高产品系的选对率为78.7％,低产品系的误选率为3.4％。一龄苗叶脉胶等级与其成龄芽接树头五割年平均产量呈极显著相关(n=100,r=0.7853)。 (3) “33月龄苗试割法”和“4龄苗试割法”:高产品系的选对率均在70％左右,低产品系的误选率在10％以上。而33月龄试割法的误选率还比4龄试割法约高8％。它们的试割产量与其成龄芽接树头五割年平均产量的相关均达显著水准,分别为r=0.4325(n=98)和r=0.5681(n=89)。 (4) “刺检法”的准确度最低,不适于作苗期产量预测的方法。
In this paper, the accuracy of five yield early prediction methods for predicting the yield of 1-4 rubber clones was compared. (1) “Petiole glue method”: The selection rate of high-yielding lines is 93.6%, while that of low-yielding lines is 3.4%. There was a significant correlation between the gel value of young shoots and the average yield of the five-year-old mature tree buds (n = 100, r = 0.8071). (2) Vein gel method: The selection rate of high-yielding lines was 78.7%, while that of low-yielding lines was 3.4%. The results showed that there was a significant correlation between the grading of veins of first instar leaves and the average yield of five-year cuttings of adult buds (n = 100, r = 0.7853). (3) “33-month-old seedling trial cutting method” and “4-year-old seedling trial cutting method”: the selection rate of high-yielding lines is about 70%, and the false-selection rate of low-yielding lines is above 10%. The 33-month-old trial cut error rate is also about 4% higher than the trial cut about 8%. Their correlations between trial cutting yield and annual yield of their five-year-old tree buds were significant (r = 0.4325 (n = 98) and r = 0.5681 (n = 89), respectively). (4) “Puncturing method” the lowest accuracy, not suitable for seedling yield prediction method.