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利用长期进行的癌症发病登记报告资料进行了系统动态分析，根据癌症发病率时间序列变化趋势，建立灰色系统理论模型，进而对北京地区２００１年癌症发病趋势做出预测。分析结果表明：到２００１年北京地区癌症发病率呈逐年升高的趋势，从１９９１～２００１年全部恶性肿瘤世界标化发病率将从１６２．５／１０万上升到１７９．９／１０万。不同部位恶性肿瘤的构成比将发生很大变化，肺癌和女性乳腺癌将出现迅速升高，肝癌、肠癌发病率亦呈上升趋势，食管癌、宫颈癌发病率持续下降，胃癌开始出现下降趋势。这些癌情变化信息为北京市癌症预防与控制研究提供科学依据。
The systemic dynamic analysis was conducted using long-term cancer incidence registration report data. According to the time series trend of cancer incidence rate, a grey system theory model was established, and then the trend of cancer incidence in Beijing in 2001 was predicted. The results of the analysis show that the incidence of cancer in Beijing has been increasing year by year from 2001. From 1991 to 2001, the worldwide standardization rate of all malignant tumors will increase from 162.5 per 100 000 to 179.9 per 100 000. The composition ratio of malignant tumors at different sites will change greatly. Lung cancer and women’s breast cancer will rise rapidly. The incidence of liver cancer and colorectal cancer will also increase. The incidence of esophageal cancer and cervical cancer will continue to decline. Gastric cancer will begin to decline. . These cancer information provide scientific basis for cancer prevention and control research in Beijing.