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灰色理论对处理“小样本”、“贫信息”具有独特的优势,能够有效地解决包括物流货运量及其相关影响因素预测在内的不确定性问题。由于广西近年来水路货运量增加缓慢,与发展水路运输的其他省区之间的差距正在加大,应用灰色理论预测广西水路货运量及影响因素对掌握水路货运的发展趋势及促进水路货运能力、物流竞争力的进一步提升具有积极作用。作者利用2009—2014年货运序列数据,应用灰色理论的Verhulst模型及新陈代谢模型对广西2015—2017年的水路货运量进行了预测并对预测精度进行了对比分析。同时通过建立广西水路货运量影响因素指标体系,使用灰色关联法定量分析了相关影响因素。研究结果表明,文中应用的预测模型和分析方法能够比较精确地预测广西水路货运量并合理地提取出相关影响因素,可以推广应用于其他区域。
Gray theory has unique advantages in dealing with “small samples” and “poor information”, which can effectively solve the uncertainties including the forecast of freight volume and related factors. Due to the slow increase of waterway freight volume in Guangxi in recent years, the gap with other provinces and regions that are developing waterway transportation is increasing. By applying gray theory to forecast the freight volume and influencing factors of Guangxi waterway canal to grasp the development trend of waterway freight transportation and to promote the waterway freight capacity, Logistics competitiveness to further enhance has a positive effect. Based on the freight sequence data from 2009 to 2014, the author uses the gray theory Verhulst model and the metabolic model to forecast the waterway freight volume in Guangxi from 2015 to 2017 and compares the forecast accuracy. At the same time, by establishing Guangxi waterway freight volume influencing factors index system, using gray correlation method to quantitatively analyze the relevant factors. The results show that the prediction model and analysis method used in this paper can predict the freight volume of Guangxi waterway more accurately and extract the relevant factors reasonably, which can be widely applied to other regions.