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不同收入群体在经济波动中蒙受的福利损失是否存在差异性?本文试图就此问题做出回答。本文将递归效用函数纳入Lucas模型,并利用1985—2010年中国城镇七等分收入组和美国城市五等分收入组居民消费数据来系统量化异质性消费者经济波动的福利成本。实证结果表明,对于中国城镇居民而言,同质性偏好假设下,中等收入群体经济波动的福利成本最小,而且无论收入等级上升还是下降,福利成本均会增大;考虑消费偏好异质性后,相对穷人而言,平抑经济波动能为富人带来更多福利收益;横向对比显示,中国中低收入群体在经济波动中蒙受的福利损失比对应收入阶层的美国居民低,其余收入群体呈现出相对大的波动性。这预示着,经济稳定政策的出台是必要的,深化市场经济改革、构建“橄榄型”社会结构有利于中国未来经济社会稳定。
Are there any differences in the welfare losses suffered by different income groups during the economic fluctuations? This article attempts to answer this question. In this paper, the recursive utility function is incorporated into the Lucas model, and the welfare costs of economic fluctuations of heterogeneous consumers are systematically quantified using the household consumption data of the quintile of urban China and the quintile of urban consumption in 1985-2010. Empirical results show that for urban residents in China, under the assumption of homogeneity preference, the welfare cost of the middle-income group fluctuates the least, and the welfare cost will increase regardless of whether the income level is rising or falling. After considering the heterogeneity of the consumer preference Relatively poor, the stabilization of economic fluctuations can bring more welfare benefits to the rich. The horizontal comparison shows that the welfare losses of the middle and low-income groups in China fluctuate less than those of the corresponding income-earning U.S. residents and the rest of the income groups A relatively large volatility. This indicates that the introduction of an economic stabilization policy is necessary. Deepening the reform of the market economy and building an “olive-shaped” social structure are conducive to China’s future economic and social stability.