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一、深圳市宏观经济的周期波动 从国民生产总值的增长速度来看,深圳市的经济发展存在明显的经济周期波动,其大致波动情况是:1979年到1981年为收缩期,经历了2年;1981年到1984年为扩张期,经历了3年;1984年到1986年为收缩期,经历了2年;1986年到1988年为扩张期,经历了2年;1988年到1989年为收缩期,经历了1年;1989年到1991年为扩张期,经历了2年;1991年到1994年为平稳期,经历了3年;1994年以后为收缩期。若按上述经济周期的波动,收缩期一般为2年,那么从1996年到1997年经济会开始上升,据1997年一季度的统计数据,国民经济增长速度比1996年要快,说明经济开始步入新一轮经济周期的上升阶段。
First, the cycle of macroeconomic volatility in Shenzhen From the perspective of the growth rate of gross national product, there is a clear economic cycle in the economic development of Shenzhen. The general fluctuations are as follows: from 1979 to 1981, the period of systole experienced 2 Year; 1981 to 1984 for the expansion period, has experienced 3 years; 1984 to 1986 for the contraction period, has experienced 2 years; 1986 to 1988 for the expansion period, has experienced 2 years; 1988 to 1989 Systolic period, after a year; from 1989 to 1991 for the expansion period, has experienced 2 years; 1991 to 1994 for the stable period, has experienced 3 years; after 1994 for the systolic period. According to the above economic cycle fluctuations, the general contraction period of 2 years, then from 1996 to 1997 the economy will begin to rise, according to the first quarter of 1997 statistics, national economic growth faster than in 1996, indicating that the economy started the pace Into the new round of economic cycle of the rising phase.