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股改下有四大预期至关重要:即时间预期、对价预期、特殊公司的预期和规模扩张预期。就规模扩张而言,股改后股票二级市场规模将经历三次非常规性大扩张。预计在2007年上半年,二级市场流通规模将迅速超过非流通股规模。三次流通股的快速扩张不是简单的规模扩张,它将带来二级市场格局的重大变化,大股东有可能成为二级市场的“大主力”、机构投资者力量显著失衡、投资行为更加复杂等等。这种变化的影响力和持久性更甚于规模扩张,股改后二级市场将经受重大挑战。
It is crucial that there are four major expectations for stock reform: time expectancy, consideration of consideration, expectation of special companies and expected expansion of scale. As far as scale expansion is concerned, the size of the stock secondary market will undergo three unconventional major expansion after the share reform. It is estimated that in the first half of 2007, the size of the secondary market will rapidly exceed the size of non-tradable shares. The rapid expansion of the three tradable shares is not a simple scale expansion, it will bring about major changes in the secondary market structure, major shareholders may become the “big force” in the secondary market, significant imbalance in the strength of institutional investors, investment behavior more complex Wait. The impact and persistence of such changes are more than the expansion of scale. After the share reform, the secondary market will face major challenges.