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基于灰色系统理论建立了管输原油蜡沉积速率灰色预测模型,借助该模型可以得到多个不同影响因素相互作用的结果,从而避免了因片面考察个别因素而影响预测结果客观性的问题。实例验证结果表明:该模型预测结果的平均相对误差为2.376%,优于逐步回归预测模型;在管壁处剪切应力、管壁处温度梯度、管壁处蜡分子质量分数梯度和原油动力粘度4个影响因素中,管壁处蜡分子质量分数梯度对蜡沉积速率的影响最大。该模型算法简单,易于掌握,可提供的信息量较大,但仍属于静态模型,欲使模型更加完善,需要建立动态灰色预测模型。
Based on the gray system theory, a gray prediction model of wax deposition rate of crude oil for pipeline transportation was established. By using this model, the interaction between several different influencing factors can be obtained, which avoids the problem of objectivity of forecasting results due to one-sided investigation of individual factors. The experimental results show that the average relative error of the prediction model is 2.376%, which is better than that of the stepwise regression model. The shear stress at the pipe wall, the temperature gradient at the pipe wall, the gradient of wax molecular mass fraction at the pipe wall and the dynamic viscosity of crude oil Among the four influencing factors, the gradient of wax molecular mass fraction at the wall of the tube has the greatest influence on the wax deposition rate. The model algorithm is simple, easy to grasp, can provide a large amount of information, but still belong to the static model, to make the model more perfect, you need to establish a dynamic gray forecasting model.