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地下水资源是具有时空动态变化的系统,以往用于地下水位预测和资源计算的数理统计方法均为固定参数模型,不免影响了计算结果的可靠性。而多层递阶回归方法是针对时空动态系统而言的,它摒弃了数理统计方法中的固定参数预报模型,模型中的系统参数是随时空变化的,是建立在将预报对象(如地下水位)作为随机动态时变系统的基础之上的。它首先进行动态系统的时空参数预报,然后在此基础之上进行系统状态的预报,从而提高了预测结果的可靠性。该方法对计算含水层的水文地质参数和边界条件无严格要求,只要求地下水水位、开采量与降水量等补给量的多年统计资料,因此非常适用于水文地质条件复杂又有地下水长系列动态观测资料的地下水开发区。本文以吉林中部平原区德惠市为例,阐明了该方法的运用过程。
Groundwater resource is a system with time-space dynamic change. The mathematical and statistical methods used in the past for groundwater table prediction and resource calculation are all fixed parameter models, which may affect the reliability of the calculation results. The multi-level regression method is for the spatio-temporal dynamic system, which abandons the fixed parameter prediction model in the mathematical statistics method. The system parameters in the model vary with time and space, and is based on the prediction of objects (such as groundwater level ) As a random dynamic time-varying system based on. It first forecasts the spatio-temporal parameters of the dynamic system and then predicts the state of the system based on it, so as to improve the reliability of the prediction results. This method does not have strict requirements for calculating hydrogeological parameters and boundary conditions of aquifer but only requires multi-year statistical data such as groundwater level, extraction volume and precipitation, so it is very suitable for long series of dynamic observation of groundwater with complex hydrogeological conditions Information groundwater development zone. This paper takes Dehui city in plain area of central Jilin as an example to illustrate the application of this method.