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有关金融危机对电信行业的影响问题已经探讨了数月之久。由于金融危机这个根本因素短期内还在持续发挥影响,因此,对于它造成的后果,不同机构的看法差别很大。不过,事实是最佳的证据。2008年第四季度是美国雷曼兄弟破产案公布、金融危机大规模扩散后的第一个季度,该季度的财报很能说明问题。总体来看,在该季度,虽然金融危机在全球爆发,但并没有对电信行业形成致命冲击,这是值得欣喜的现象。但是放眼中期,发展压力会非常大。这是因为电信业是为其他行业服务的行业,金融危机的影响从宏观经济传导到电信行业需要一个过程。许多发达市场的运营商已发布未来业绩下滑的预警,某些新兴市场也出现了增长放慢的苗头。因此,规避风险必须有更长远的眼光。
The impact of the financial crisis on the telecommunications industry has been discussed for months. As the underlying factor of the financial crisis continues to exert its influence in the short term, the perceptions of different agencies vary widely depending on the consequences. However, the facts are the best evidence. The fourth quarter of 2008 was the first quarter after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy case was announced in the United States. After the massive financial crisis spread, the quarterly earnings report shows the problem. Overall, in the quarter, although the global financial crisis broke out, it did not cause a fatal impact on the telecommunications industry. This is a delightful sign. However, looking into the medium term, development pressure will be very large. This is because the telecommunications industry is an industry serving other industries and the impact of the financial crisis requires a process from the macroeconomy to the telecommunications industry. Operators in many developed markets have issued warnings about declining performance in the future, and some emerging markets have seen signs of slowing. Therefore, to avoid risks must have a more long-term perspective.