论文部分内容阅读
定量评估税收政策的效果,对于发挥财税政策的结构性调节优势、加强不同宏观调控措施之间的协调,具有重要现实意义。本文利用固定效应模型加工具变量(FE+IV)的方法,分析了2004~2009年期间增值税转型对企业投资行为的影响。由于存在遗漏变量等内生性问题,OLS模型和固定效应模型会显著低估改革对投资的促进作用。基于工具变量法的估计结果显示,如果增值税有效税率(实际缴纳税费/销售收入)降低1个百分点,企业投资约增加16%。按此计算,2004~2009年期间渐次推进的增值税改革效果非常明显,对所覆盖的装备、石化、农产品加工、采掘、电力等行业而言,从生产型增值税转向消费型增值税,给定其他条件不变,企业投资大约增加了8%。这说明减税对投资特别是私人部门投资有明显促进,用好减税清费措施对稳增长、调结构非常重要。
The quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of tax policies has important practical significance for giving play to the structural adjustment advantages of fiscal and taxation policies and for strengthening the coordination among different macro-control measures. In this paper, we use the fixed effect model to process the variables (FE + IV), and analyze the impact of VAT transformation on the corporate investment behavior from 2004 to 2009. Owing to the endogenous problems such as omission variables, the OLS model and fixed-effects model will significantly underestimate the promotion effect of reform on investment. Estimates based on the instrumental variable approach show that business investment increased by about 16% if the effective VAT rate (actual tax / sales) was reduced by 1 percentage point. According to this calculation, the value-added tax reform gradually promoted during the period 2004-2009 has a very obvious effect. From the value-added tax on production to the consumption-based value-added tax on the covered equipment, petrochemicals, processing of agricultural products, mining and electricity, Given other conditions remain unchanged, corporate investment increased by about 8%. This shows that tax cuts have obviously promoted investment, especially in the private sector. Making good use of tax cuts and clearance measures is very important for steady growth and structural readjustment.