论文部分内容阅读
在进行采矿权价值评估时,若只对矿产品的价格进行静态的预测,而不采用模拟技术,就可能严重低估或高估采矿权的价值.本文采用几何布朗运动和均值回归过程的这两种矿产品价格预测模型模拟预测江西某铜硫矿项目的采矿权价值,结果表明矿业项目服务年限内的矿产品价格波动对采矿权评估价值具有重要影响.因此,在进行矿业权价值评估时,建议将短期价格预测和长期价格模拟结合起来,采用几何布朗运动或均值回归过程模拟矿产品长期价格.
When the value of mining rights is evaluated, the value of mining rights may be seriously underestimated or overestimated if only the price of minerals is predicted to be static without the use of simulation techniques.In this paper, the geometric Brownian motion and the mean regression are used The prediction model of mineral product price simulates the value of mining right of a copper and sulfur project in Jiangxi Province and the result shows that the fluctuation of mineral product price during the service years of mining project has an important influence on the evaluation value of mining right.Therefore, It is suggested to combine the short-term price forecast with the long-term price simulation to simulate the long-term price of mineral products using the geometric Brownian motion or the mean-value regression process.