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本文以哈尔滨师范大学供热锅炉房的实测供热量和室外空气温度为依据,采用单输入/单输出CAR(可控自回归)模型对供热系统进行统一建模,从而提出小区采暖供热量的一步预测。这对供热锅炉的运行管理及燃料耗量的估计是有益的。 系统规模的辨识由低阶开始,然后逐次增加模型阶数,并用F检验对模型自动筛选。辨识过程由以下三部分组成:(1)递推最小二乘估计;(2)模型阶的F检验;(3)子阶和时滞的F检验。
Based on the measured heat supply and outdoor air temperature of the heating boiler room of Harbin Normal University, this paper uses a single-input/single-output CAR (controllable auto-regression) model to model the heating system and proposes district heating and heating. A one-step forecast. This is beneficial to the operation management and fuel consumption estimation of heating boilers. The identification of the system scale starts from the low order, then increases the model order one by one, and uses the F test to automatically filter the model. The identification process consists of the following three parts: (1) recursive least squares estimation; (2) model-order F-test; (3) sub-order and delay F-test.