船舶交通流仿真随机生成算法对比研究与应用

来源 :第十五届中国智能交通年会 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:xdq2269586
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船舶交通流仿真建模是水路交通运输领域的基础问题之一,随机数生成算法已广泛应用于船舶交通流建模研究.本文以长江中游武汉河段船舶AIS历史数据为基础,分析了通航船舶航速、船舶尺寸、到达间距等特征参数分布规律;分别采用线性同余发生器、Mersenne Twister随机数发生器和乘法lagged Fibonacci发生器,开展了船舶交通流仿真建模研究.研究结果表明:随机数生成算法可应用于内河船舶交通流仿真,乘法lagged Fibonacci发生器较其他两类发生器更优,其仿真结果与实测数据对比相对误差最小,上、下行船舶数量仿真相对误差分别为2.83%、2.68%;基于乘法lagged Fibonacci发生器的船舶速度、船长、抵达时间的仿真结果同样优于其他两类发生器.本文研究成果可为航道规划与建设、船舶通航风险评价等研究提供依据.
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