American Silver Influx, Trade Imbalance, and Rice Revolution: Empirical Evidence from the Northern C

• 作 者: 赵红军
• 机 构: 上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院
• 出 处: 全国高校国际贸易学科协作组
• 发表日期: 2014年11期
• 关键词: Price Revolution in China American Silver Inflow Grain Price Weather Shock

　　Employing the panel data from the Northern China Plain 1736-1911, this paper tests the so called price revolution hypothesis in the 18th and earlier 19th China.It finds that American silver inflow played an important role in raising the grain price when weather, and population etc.are controlled.This role is verified in three dimensions, one is the quantity dimension of American silver inflow, the second is the value dimension of silver relative to copper coin, the third one is the value dimension of silver relative to gold.And we do find that the comprehensive impact of American silver inflow is significantly positive though the impact of these three dimensions is a little bit mixed.This result as a whole verifies the hypothesis of rice revolution in terms of grain price, however, the degree was not that much like European Case.This paper provides the first econometric test of the so called price revolution hypothesis in the 18th and 19th century China and deepens the understanding of American silver inflow and its relationship with Chinese economic development in late imperial time.