论文部分内容阅读
Background: Mental illness has been commonly considered as one of the most significant risk factors for suicide.This article introduces a probability model of health, mental illness, and suicide, and discusses its implications for suicide prevention.Methods: A probability model was proposed and transition functions among states of healthy, mental illness, and suicide are given.Partial elasticity of the parameters was introduced and a series of sensitivity analyses were performed based on the model.Results: In a probability model, number of suicide in a fixed time period was given in terms of parameters of transition rates between healthy, mental illness, and suicide states.Sensitivity analyses of the model revealed that number of suicide was more sensitive to transition rate change between living states (healthy or mental illness) and suicide state than to change among living states.Preventions of healthy people from suicide and from mental illness were the two preferred cost-effective choices for suicide prevention.Conclusion: Prevention of healthy people from suicide shall among the first priorities in suicide prevention strategies.