Potential of Agricultural Carbon Reduction under Climate Change and Its Spatial Correlation Characte

• 作 者: WU Xianrong ZHANG Junbiao
• 机 构: College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, China
• 出 处: 第十七届中国科协年会
• 发表日期: 2015年7期
• 关键词: low-carbon agriculture agricultural carbon emissions potential for carbon reduct

　　In this paper,based on the environmental production technology,by constructing the agricultural economic system coexisting with the expected and non expected output,with 31 provinces in China during 2001-2012 years as the research objects,we first used the directional distance function to estimate the shadow price of agricultural carbon emissions,and built potential index of reducing agricultural carbon emissions,found that there are obvious differences among the agricultural carbon emissions reduction potential levels of the regions in China.Considered the space distance function with spatial weight matrix,through Morans I test,we found that there is significant spatial dependence in the potential of agricultural carbon reduction.Finally,we used the spatial Durbin model to study the spatial correlation characteristics of the potential for agricultural carbon reduction among each provinces.Results show that the level of economic development,agricultural economic development,and agricultural industrial structure exert significantly positive influences,while the degree of opening and agricultural disaster rate have an significantly negative effect on the provinces own potential for reducing the agricultural carbon emissions.The agricultural public investment and degrees of opening positively affect the potential of agricultural carbon reduction of the surrounding provinces,while the industrial structure of agriculture has a significantly negative impact on that.As a suggestion,we would like to encourage each province that beside implementing the work of reducing agricultural carbon in its own region by adjusting the affected factors,its supposed to strengthen the cooperation with other provinces in carbon reduction projects,and make full use of the spillover effect of space factors to improve the efficiency of cooperation mechanism and compensation system of carbon reduction by establishing carbon trading center among the adjacent provinces.