【摘 要】
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Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP,between capital stock and GDP.Scenario analyses of GDP are performed by using the G
【机 构】
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Silicon Lake College of Vocational Technology.Suzhou Jiangsu 215332,PR China
【出 处】
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中国环境科学学会室内环境与健康分会第八届学术年会( IEHB 2017)
论文部分内容阅读
Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP,between capital stock and GDP.Scenario analyses of GDP are performed by using the GDP model established.The energy consumptions in Germany,Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China.Under Paris Agreement,Environmental Friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions for sustainable China has been formed.According to Environmental Friendly Scenario,the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion tce and CO2 emissions will be l.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tce that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51%of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003.In 2050,the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20%lower than that of Germany in 2003,but will be still 37%higher than that in Japan in 2003.It is certain that to fulfill the Environmental Friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society,not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors.
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