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In order to avoid catastrophic accident during the limit of validity, maintenance programs should be made based on multi-site damage.In this paper, the probability of multi-site damage occurrence, propagation of multiple cracks in aircraft fuselages made in aluminum 2524-T3 and development of failure criteria are considered together.Probability of fatigue, fracture mechanics is adopted to establish the theory model of occurrence probability and growth rate of multiple cracks.A large number of tests are done to support the model.Consequently, the occurrence probability can provide a reference for establishing initial start point, the same as propagation rate to the inspection interval.