Some Research about the Reliability Analysis of Umbilical

• 作 者: Dan Luo Yu Zhang Haikun Zhao
• 机 构: InstituteofOceanengineeringresearch,ChinaUniversityofPetroleum,Beijing102249,China
• 出 处: 第六届水下技术学会技术会议SUTTC2017
• 发表日期: 2017年10期
• 关键词: Umbilical reliability analysis fault tree Monte-Carlo Bayesian

　　This paper mainly studies the life cycle reliability analysis of umbilical. After building the failure modes, the life cycle reliability analysis of umbilical is carried out by the method of fault tree. The fault tree of life cycle umbilical is established, then the minimum cut set method is used to obtain the importance of structure. Its found that the human factor splay the most important role in the umbilical reliability. The multi-state Bayesian network based on fuzziness is adopted to analyze reliability of umbilical. The equipments working state are: working well reliability is 99.82%, working failing slightly is 0.14%, and failing severely is 0.04%. The Monte-Carlo method is used to analyze corroded steel pipe in umbilical. Its found that with the development of time, the probability of failure becomes bigger and bigger, after 30 years, the failure probability reaches 5%. In our future work, we will study the failure mechanism, and the Bayesian model updating approach will be adopted for life cycle reliability analysis work.