论文部分内容阅读
Vulnerability is a effective description of the extent to which a system susceptible to sustaining damages from climate change (IPCC, 2001).Rapid economic development in China eompanied with undefined ecological problems has urged scientists to participate in the comprehensive survey of coupled human-environment ecosystem.Middle of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China (MIM) region is a hotspot study area for its high vulnerability to climate change, and long history and complex mechanism in ecosystem management.In this study, we put our focus on vulnerability to natural disasters on agriculture production, 74 counties in MIM located on the ecotone were investigated.Satellite remote sensing provided us multi-dimensional aspects to nature, together with social-economic data, we could indicate the comprehensive characteristic of focus region.In this study, we use Probit model to estimate the possible response of vulnerability assessment of hypothetical counties to certain variation of Independent variables given in the attributes, This regression procedure aim to measure the relationship between the strength of a stimulus (the questionnaires)and the proportion of cases exhibiting a certain response to the stimulus(the experts choices).Expert judgment questionnaire consisted with conjoint choice questions at micro spatial scale will be designed and delivered to experts professionalized in multiple concerning field.Each pair of conjoint questions are composed with two hypothetical counties in the study area, representing typical social-economical, ecological, and geographical characteristics.In each conjoint question, two hypothetical countries are described by a array of 11 indicators in ecological, economical and management constructs.Indicators used to character and identify the spatial diversity of vulnerability are either from regional statistical yearbook or based upon remote sensing data.Relevancies and trade-offs will be given from the regression results using Probit model according to the responses from experts.Probit regression indicates that our respondents regard number of physicians, special technologies and accessibility to information as the most important determinants in social-economical adaptive capacity.Also, we found the experts judgment are consistent with our pre-assumption about how the other three dimensions in vulnerability(adaptive capacity and sensitivity, and exposure) worked based on a validation in Ordos city.