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A probabilistic analysis is performed where the pressure change inside a concrete tube is probabilistically estimated considering the uncertainties inherent in the material, system discontinuity and outside pressure.A set of uncertain variables that are related to the equivalent system air permeability and the atmospheric pressure are defined as random variables with specific distributions.The pressure change inside a concrete tube is then probabilistically described using both analytical and simulation approaches.The analysis confirms the need of probabilistic approach for evaluation of the airtightness performance of vacuum tube structures.