Lake Watershed Pollution Control and Management with Uncertainty

• 作 者: Ye longhao Yu yajuan Guo huaicheng
• 机 构: School of Chemical Engineering & Environment, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, P. R. China,
• 出 处: 第十三届世界湖泊大会
• 发表日期: 2009年7期
• 关键词: Integrated management Lake watershed Model uncertainty Pollution control

The lake watershed management includes multiple aspects of uncertainties.In order to express and adapt the complicated characteristics in the lake watershed management,especially in its water pollution control,a framework including uncertainty analysis and optimization is constructed.In order to better understand different kinds of uncertainties,a series of primary expressions of multiple uncertainties are provided,the paper also analyzed the uncertainty sources in typical modeling process,including context and framing uncertainty,input uncertainty,model structure uncertainty,parameter uncertainty,model technical uncertainty and output uncertainty.Fifteen methods which are applicable for uncertainty analysis and assessment during the modeling process were then brought forward.Then the paper discussed the suitability of all methods on different steps of the modeling process as well as their applicability on uncertainty of different types and originating from different sources.At last,Lake Dianchi Watershed is used as a case to illustrate the particular process of pollution control and management with uncertainty.The framework of Lake Dianchi watershed pollution control and management with uncertainty was provided,which can help explain the process of integrated management.