Modeling the Diffusion of Chinese Automobiles --Diffusion Pattern and Antecedent Factors

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  The objective of this study is to model the diffusion pattern of Chinese automobile registration volumes across 31 geographic regions (provinces) and obtain estimates for the diffusion parameters.Specifically, we apply the most frequently applied diffusion curve, the bass diffusion curve to portray the innovation and imitation effect.Furthermore, this study investigates the impact of antecedent variables on the diffusion pattern which provides insights as what factors are driving this pattern.Findings show that GNP and number of automobiles possessed are positive predictor of market potential coefficient derived from Bass model, and the larger the number of automobile possession, the bigger the imitation effect of diffusion.
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