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对项目物资需求进行合理预测,可以有效规划资金的使用,保证施工正常进行,减低项目库存。针对大型工程施工过程中,各阶段物资需求随机不确定问题,采用承诺采购价格的产能预定方式进行采购,并构建了以采购方价格制定为主导,以供应商预置产能为跟随的动态博弈模型。分别考虑了采购方风险中性和损失厌恶两种风险态度下的最优决策,并对结果进行了比较。进一步考虑了施工过程中需求分布发生变动的情况下,产能预定和采购价格的调整策略,具体指出了当需求扰动达到何种程度时,才通过承诺价格对所需产能进行调整。
Properly forecasting the project material requirements can effectively plan the use of funds, ensure the normal construction and reduce the project inventory. In the process of large-scale engineering construction, the stochastic uncertainties of material demands in all stages of the project are procured by using the predetermined production capacity of promised purchase price. A dynamic game model based on the price determination of the buyer and the supplier’s preset production capacity is constructed . The optimal decision-making under the attitude of risk-neutral and loss-averse of purchaser is considered respectively, and the results are compared. Further considering the change of demand distribution in the construction process, the adjustment strategy of production capacity and purchase price specifies how to adjust the required capacity through the promised price when the demand perturbation reaches the specific level.