Which Probability is Responsible for Predicting Changeable Uncertainty? Numerical or Verbal

来源 :第一届决策与脑研究国际研讨会(THE 1stINTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON DECISION MA | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:ASHLEY920
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  Everyone faces uncertainty on a daily basis.Two kinds of probability expressions,verbal and numerical,have been used for characterizing uncertainty.Three studies were designed to test whether verbal probability is the preferred way to express changeable uncertainty,whereas numerical probability is more frequently the preferred way to express unchangeable uncertainty.We found that the “verbal-changeable” and “numerical-changeless” associations existed when the response pattern was a forced-choice one.When the response pattern was changed to free-response,these associations remained true unless the participants were requested to write their own probability prediction for vague uncertainty.Even in an implicit task,the “verbal-changeable” combination was much more compatible than other combinations.Thus,a novel feature called “changeability” was proposed to describe the changeable nature of verbal probability.These results extend the domain of probability predictions and enrich our general understanding of communication with verbal probability.Because the world around us is full of change,this "changeability" feature may play a major role in communication under uncertain conditions at an applied level and could thus prove to be useful for practitioners and consultants.
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