【摘 要】
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We constructed a twin dynamic mathematical model to examine two possible scenarios for the spread of the ebola virus disease(EVD).The first model mimics the
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We constructed a twin dynamic mathematical model to examine two possible scenarios for the spread of the ebola virus disease(EVD).The first model mimics the initial spread of the disease before a substantial scaleup in public health strategies towards the control of the ebola virus disease was established while the second model takes into account strategies put in place to halt the spread of the disease.We derived EVD parameters from epidemiological data for the current epidemic and propagated uncertainty in epidemiological parameters onto model predictions by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo based sampling methods.We established that if the running reproductive number is unit for large time in the first model then the epidemic will pass even if R0(?)1.Also,using data from Guinea,Sierra Leon,Liberia and Nigeria,we carry out numerical simulation of our models and establish threshold conditions for the eradication of disease.
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