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本文利用制造业两位数行业数据测定了我国制造业平均集中率和地区相对专业化指数,识别和分析我国制造业产业分布状态变化与各区域产业专业化分工的变化趋势。在此基础上,我们将制造业集聚和地区专业化引入空间面板模型,并通过空间自相关性检验、Wald统计量检验和LR统计量检验选定空间杜宾模型实证检验制造业集聚和地区专业化对我国制造业产出的影响。实证分析结果表明,资本要素投入、劳动要素投入、制造业集聚和地区专业化对我国制造业产出的直接影响和空间溢出效应的方向和显著性水平存在差异。资本要素投入存在显著为正的直接效应和显著为负的溢出效应。劳动要素存在显著为正的直接效应和溢出效应。制造业集聚存在显著为正的直接效应,而溢出效应不显著。地区专业化存在显著为正的溢出效应,而直接效应不显著。从总效应看,产业集聚和地区专业化对制造业产出存在显著的正向影响,是制造业产出增长的重要驱动力。
In this paper, the manufacturing double-digit industry data were used to determine the average concentration rate of manufacturing industry in China and the relative specialization index in the region. The dissertation identified and analyzed the changing trend of the distribution status of manufacturing industry in our country and the specialization of industries in various regions. On this basis, we introduce the manufacturing agglomeration and regional specialization into the spatial panel model, and empirically test the manufacturing agglomeration and regional specialty through the spatial autocorrelation test, Wald statistic test and LR statistic test. Impact on China’s Manufacturing Output. The results of empirical analysis show that there are differences in the direction and level of the direct impact on the output of China’s manufacturing industry and the spatial spillover effect between capital factor input, labor factor input, manufacturing agglomeration and regional specialization. There is a significant positive direct effect and a significantly negative spillover effect on capital factor inputs. There are significant direct positive and spillover effects of labor factors. There was a significant positive direct effect on manufacturing agglomeration, while the spillover effect was not significant. There is a significant positive spillover effect for regional specialization, but the direct effect is not significant. Judging from the total effect, industrial agglomeration and regional specialization have a significant positive impact on manufacturing output, which is an important driving force for the output growth of manufacturing industry.