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科学的决策是基于对各种信息的分析而做出的。统计数字、实测数据、数学模型是科学分析的依据,但是统计数字有误差或方差,数据有偶然性,数学模型只是客观世界的近似。人们的经验或知识往往是定性的、粗糙的、不准确或具有一定弹性。但是经验或知识也是累积而来的,也反映了一定的客观性。怎样把人们的经验/知识所提供的信息引入科学的决策是本文要讨论的问题。
Scientific decision making is based on the analysis of various kinds of information. Statistics, measured data and mathematical models are the basis for scientific analysis. However, the statistics have errors or variances, the data are contingent, and the mathematical models are only an approximation of the objective world. People’s experience or knowledge is often qualitative, rough, inaccurate or somewhat elastic. However, experience or knowledge is also accumulated, but also reflects a certain degree of objectivity. How to introduce the information provided by people’s experience / knowledge into scientific decision-making is the issue to be discussed in this article.