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In the view of the historical data of the agricultural products,it has the characteristics of strong time sequence,loose information,small amount of data and strong data volatility.With the support of the basic theories of grey system theory and neural network,this paper constructs a dynamic forecast model which is based on the gray residual error correction model,GM(1,N) and the multiple factors association theory of BP neural network.It can predict the influence on crop yield according to the many associated factors dynamically,has achieved good results of data analysis and has higher prediction accuracy.The safety forecast analysis system of agricultural products quantity based on the dynamic model has promoted the practical use of the safety forecast model which optimizes the prediction accuracy greatly.