论文部分内容阅读
1990年底,我国未偿外债总额预期达460亿美元,年内需偿付到期本息约70亿美元,开始进入还债高峰。本文就还债与国内市场及物价的关系作些探讨。一、偿付外债本息有一定困难按照通常观点,我国在1989年出口额达525亿美元,1990年偿还70亿美元的本息仅占上年出口额的13.3%,基本上属于偿债无风险国。但实际上偿债有无风险,还应考虑下列因素: (一)国际收支情况。1981～1989年,我国国际收支经常项目除1982年和1983年外,其他年份都是逆差,1984～1989年逆差总额达400多亿美元。巨大的贸易逆差,制约了我国还债能力,增加了出口的压力。
At the end of 1990, China’s total outstanding foreign debt was expected to reach 46 billion U.S. dollars. Within the year, the principal and interest due to be repaid will reach approximately 7 billion U.S. dollars and begin to enter the peak of debt repayment. This article discusses the relationship between debt repayment and the domestic market and price. First, it is difficult to repay the external debt principal and interest. According to the usual view, China’s export volume reached 52.5 billion U.S. dollars in 1989, and the principal and interest repaying 7 billion U.S. dollars in 1990 accounted for only 13.3 percent of the export volume in the previous year. It basically belongs to the state without debt repayment. However, in fact, there is no risk of debt repayment, and the following factors should also be considered: (1) International balance of payments. From 1981 to 1989, China’s current account of the international balance of payments, except for 1982 and 1983, was a deficit in other years. The total deficit amounted to more than US$40 billion in 1984-1989. The huge trade deficit has constrained China’s ability to repay debt and increased the pressure on exports.